Evaluation of Creep Crack Growth Failure Probability at Weld Interface Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Lee, Jin-Sang; Yoon, Kee-Bong

Journal of KWJS 2005;23(6):61-66.
Published online January 26, 2006.

[연구논문]몬테카를로 모사에 의한 용접 계면에서의 크리프 균열성장 파손 확률 평가

Evaluation of Creep Crack Growth Failure Probability at Weld Interface Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

A probabilistic approach for evaluating failure risk is suggested in this paper. Probabilistic fracture analyses were performed for a pressurized pipe of a Cr-Mo steel reflecting variation of material properties at high temperature. A crack was assumed to be located along the weld fusion line. Probability density functions of major variables were determined by statistical analyses of material creep and creep crack growth data measured by the previous experimental studies by authors. Distributions of these variables were implemented in Monte Carlo simulation of this study. As a fracture parameter for characterizing growth of a fusion line crack between two materials with different creep properties, Ct normalized with Cwas employed. And the elapsed time was also normalized with tT. Resultingly, failure probability as a function of operating time was evaluated for various cases. Conventional deterministic life assessment result was turned out to be conservative compared with that of probabilistic result. Sensitivity analysis for each input variable was conducted to understand the most influencing variable to the analysis results. Internal pressure, creep crack growth coefficient and creep coefficient were more sensitive to failure probability than other variables.